Archive for June, 2009

That’s Not Fair!

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

What’s wrong with this picture?

June 16, 2009: Donte Stallworth pleads guilty to DUI manslaughter – gets 30 days in jail. (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?prov=ap&slug=ap-stallworth-pedestriankilled&type=lgns)

June 23, 2009: Lee Monroe Crider pleads no contest to stealing Lance Armstrong’s bike – gets 3 years in jail. (http://www.sacbee.com/500/story/1968401.html?mi_rss=Cycling/Hiking/Running)

No, I didn’t swap the sentences. That’s really true.

Donte Stallworth, a wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns, killed someone while driving drunk and got 30 days in jail. He also got his driver’s license suspended for life, has to perform 1000 hours of community service, is under house arrest for 2 years, and then has 8 years of probation. Donte has recently signed a $35 million contract with the Browns.

Lee Monroe Crider, on the other hand, is a nobody who made $6/hr under the table working at a laundromat. For his crime of grand theft (the bike was worth $10,000) he gets 3 years in jail.

Apparently the moral of this story is: If you’re a sports star you can pretty much get away with murder. But if you’re a poor nobody then the justice system will serve a harsh punishment for a relatively minor infraction.

How Is This Related?

Saturday, June 13th, 2009

I got a notice today that my auto insurance will be increasing by $97.60 per year. Normally I’d just blow that off to inflation or increased accidents in the state or something else. But the company told me why they raised my rates – because of recent inquiries on my credit history. If you’re thinking “what the fuck?” then your thoughts are similar to mine.

I know my credit score – it’s 804. And I know the source of the inquiry – I refinanced my mortgage. So here I am with an excellent credit score and doing my best to improve my financial situation and my auto insurance company penalizes me for it.

Now I suppose it’s entirely possible that their actuarial department has come up with some statistical measurement that says if someone has looked at their credit report in the last 12 months then they’re at a higher risk for an accident. But to increase my rates by 7% because I’m trying to fiscally responsible is ridiculous!

Starting to Make Sense

Wednesday, June 10th, 2009

Economics is starting to make sense. I was drafting a post a couple days ago that started by asking “what makes the economy go – consumers or producers?” In my mind it’s both, but I couldn’t figure out how to best articulate that. Then, thanks to an article by Ravi Batra, it made sense.

Economies are balanced when supply (production) = demand (consumption). If demand goes up but supply doesn’t, then you get inflation (rising prices). If supply (productivity) goes up but demand doesn’t, you see deflation (falling prices).

But what has been happening for the last 25+ years is that productivity has gone up, but real wages (demand) has not. When that happens, the way the economy grows is by creating debt. Debt temporarily increases demand. So we’ve been under the illusion of a growing economy, but as we’ve seen it’s starting to unravel in a nasty way. That’s because eventually you have to pay the debt back.

While the debt is being paid back then demand really drops, you end up with oversupply, and prices start to fall. When prices fall, people wait to spend their money because it will be worth more tomorrow than it is today. That, of course, exacerbates the deflation problem. It’s what happened in 1929.

In a way, the Suzie Ormann’s of the world are right. Getting out of debt is the answer. It will hurt for the short run but once the economy stablizes it will help a lot for the long run.

Clowns to the Left, Jokers to the Right

Saturday, June 6th, 2009

Here I am stuck in the middle.

In my younger days I had very strong opinions about how I thought the world should be run. Of course those opinions varied depending on the mood I was in. I contemplated national ID cards (this was in like 1982) and being able to track the movement of everyone to what a Randian society would actually look like. As I’ve gotten older I’ve tempered my views somewhat and tried to make them more consistent with each other. (Monitoring every citizen doesn’t work well with a Galt’s Gulch economy).

Yet I still find myself a bit torn. Some of that is not understanding all the details. So I read and learn. Today I read The Conservative Nanny State which discusses how the wealthiest in this country use government to keep money flowing upward. I’m also reading The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression. One point in this book is that the protective tarrifs were what caused the depression in the first place, and both Hoover’s and FDR’s refusal to remove them prolonged and deepend the depression.

The one argument in The Conservative Nanny State that I found interesting is that most (if not all) free-market proponents both complain about the inefficiency of government AND claim that it’s unfair for government to compete with private business. It would seem that free-market theory would have inefficient businesses – even if run by the government – at a disadvantage. If the government really sucked that bad at running a business then why would private business be so afraid of government run business? Could it be that government run businesses aren’t as inefficient as we’ve been led to believe?

Take this example from page 14 of The Conservative Nanny State:

Back in the late 1990s, several express mail companies actually went into court to try to force the U.S. Postal Service to abandon an ad campaign that was proving very effective. The Postal Service ads pointed that its express mail service was much cheaper than FedEx or UPS. After the courts refused to outlaw the ad campaign, the express mail companies went to their friends in Congress, who effectively tamed the competition.

The U.S. Postal Service is not funded by any tax dollars. It is completely self-funded. Yet it was prohibited from promoting its services because private enterprise couldn’t compete? Where exactly is the logic in that.

Lest you think that The Conservative Nanny State is a “let the government run everything” book, there are arguments about getting the government out of the way on the issue of debt. From page 59:

In a free market economy, businesses know that investment decisions don’t always work out as expected. Sometimes businesses invest in developing a product that turns out not to be as good as they believed, or that doesn’t have the market they anticipated. They may invest based on trends, such as rising oil prices, that do not continue, leaving them with large losses. Or, they may extend credit to people, businesses, or countries that turn out to be bad credit risks. No one expects that the government will step in and sustain the demand for a bad product. Nor do we expect the government to intervene to make sure investors’ expectations about rising oil prices are realized, for example, by buying up massive amounts of petroleum. But when it comes to making bad credit decisions, the nanny state conservatives do expect the government to step in and bail them out.

In a truly free-market there would be no government intervention. Companies making bad loans would be S.O.L. if the people those loans were made to couldn’t pay them back. It could be claimed that the current financial crisis we’re in stemmed in part from changes to the bankruptcy laws back in 2005. Lenders were more likely to lend money because they knew that they could benefit from the fact that it was harder for people to say “I’m broke, I can’t pay my debt, I’m filing for bankruptcy protection”.

What the new laws did was effectively put ALL the responsibility for the loan on the part of the borrower. It indemnified the lender who could shirk his duties in making sure the loan would be repaid. Higher risk loans deserve higher interest rates. You see that on corporate and municipal bonds and bond ratings. Credit scores serve a similar purpose for personal lending. So why would someone with a credit rating of 600 deserve the same low interest rate that someone with a score of 800 might get? They shouldn’t. The score of 600 is a higher risk and deserves a higher interest rate.

In exchange for the higher interest rate, the lender is also taking a risk that the loan won’t be repaid. That’s factored into the higher rate. But when the bankruptcy laws changed lenders realized that their risk was lowered. Someone with a 600 score now had the same risk as someone with an 800 score. Why? Because the government was turned into a debt collection agency.

You can read the entire book online for free (yes, free – there’s even a section on why copyrights and patents are a form of protectionism that are a drag on the economy).

After reading it I feel better about my weird combination of free-market and socialistic views and I hope someday soon to be able to articulate them better.

Medical Privacy

Friday, June 5th, 2009

I went to the dentist yesterday (Bright Now in Castle Rock, CO). This was the first time at this dentist. I was not happy. Well, I was ok with it until my wife and I started talking about it. (She went too). The biggest concern was that there was no privacy.

This dentist’s practice had four or five chairs in a single room with just some short walls between them. This meant that anything anyone said could be heard by everyone else in the room. So my wife got to hear everything about my diagnosis and I everything about hers.  We also got to hear the diagnosis of someone else who neither of us knew. And they got to hear ours as well.

Is that wrong or what?

From the office’s perspective they’re legally covered and can’t be sued for disclosing things that are overheard by others. This is because it’s only the patient who can waive the doctor-patient privilege. As soon as we accepted treatment in that room which we knew was not private we waived that privilege.

Needless to say we’re now looking for another new dentist.

Swimming and Living

Monday, June 1st, 2009

This morning I went swimming. Got up at 5:30 and was at the pool at 6:00. It was my first time swimming for exercise in probably 25 years. I swam for 20 minutes then got dizzy and nauseous so had to stop. This is harder than I remember it. Then again I’m 25 years older so everything’s a little bit harder than it used to be.

It was nice though. I got to see an old friend and make a couple of new ones. I plan on going again tomorrow. Hopefully I’ll last longer. And the more I do it the longer I’ll last on this world.

I don’t know about anyone else my age, but mentally it’s not computing that I’m at mid-life. I still feel like I should be able to do things that I could do 20 years ago. And in some ways I can do more than I could then. I remember as a kid going hiking and getting tired after 1-2 miles. Now I can hike all day and am planning a 104 mile 7-day hike in just a few weeks. On the other hand, I used to be able to swim all day (grew up in Florida) and now I can’t handle but 20 minutes.

Things change over time. You get better at some skills while other skills fall by the wayside. But I don’t feel bad about it. I’ve learned that this is true: You always find time to do the things that are important to you.